Since becoming a parent the most important thing I’ve learned is that I cannot control everything, and my kids will always be influenced by outside forces. It seems the key is to make sure kids have the skills, resiliency, and grit to take what life throws at them, weather it, and come out stronger and better on the other end. Parenting can teach us something about handling what’s going on in the market today.
We officially crossed the line into a bear market and although most people understand this is just part of the cycle, it still doesn’t feel good. We can and do continue to focus on the things we can control—rebalancing in line with our strategy, revisiting items such as insurance policies and estate planning, making opportunistic adjustments to reduce long-term taxes and expenses, etc. etc. etc.—and continue to train ourselves to not worry about things, like market forces or playground bullies, that we cannot control. In that vein, I’d like to offer a few brief thoughts related to investing during bear markets generally.
- Time is our friend: On a daily basis the chance of the market going up or down is pretty close to 50/50, but over the course of a year or two the odds are in favor of going up. The market is down right now, and this may end up being a negative year, but that doesn’t change the likelihood or impact of a turnaround lurking around the corner.
- Beware of historical analogies in the media: It doesn’t take much looking to find comparisons between the current economic environment and the Great Recession (2008), the dotcom bust (2000), stagflation (1970’s) or even the Great Depression (1929) itself. All of these periods have things to teach us about the current environment, but all are also different from the current environment.
- In tough times the darkest hour is often just before the dawn. That said, unlike the sun’s rise we don’t know when this dawn will come. If the heartburn is too much for you, call me, let’s talk about it, and let’s see about a plan to gradually adjust your portfolio further down the line.
Some things we can control
Some of the best articles I’ve read in recent weeks on living through this bear market have had precious little to do with the actual economic cycle. The advice is much simpler: get more sleep, remember to exercise, turn off the cable news and find a good novel to read instead. To that end my family and I (pictures) just returned from Colorado and Rocky Mountain National Park. I’d made it a personal goal to summit as many 14ers as I could while there and am pleased to report that over 4 days Jillian and I managed to summit 6 of them!
And perhaps just as importantly as focusing on that short-term health and wellness is remaining focused on long-term goals. Before I even entered this business and long before children, Jillian and I created some lifestyle goals for our marriage and future family. Once such goal was to spend some time abroad each summer, enjoying our day-to-day life in another place. Later this month we will embark on our first such Tobias family study abroad, a Spanish immersion program at a university in Cuernavaca, Mexico. Far from the resorts of the Yucatan or Cabo, all five of us will be working on our taco consumption and conversational Spanish in equal parts. This won’t be a vacation though, and I’ll still be working and accessible. I look forward to telling you about it soon.
Live Long and Prosper,
Dan Tobias, CFP®
Please note: The above is a copy of the 2022 Q2 Passport Wealth Management client newsletter attached to quarterly statements from July 2022. The newsletter is published to the website for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. You should consult a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional for financial advice.
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Investing involves risks, including the potential for loss of principal. There is no guarantee that markets will act as they have in the past or that any investment plan or strategy will be successful.